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Religion and consumer fundamentals: an environmental angle
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It is no secret that trends in consumer demands drive the business cycle. When the end user's demand shifts fundamentally due to social or political changes, producers need to shift their business models to adapt to these changes and provide for the new demands. As always: “Change or Die”.
With the exception of political forces that catalyze consumer demand changes (via subsidies, taxes, etc) there are also social changes that have an effect on consumer trends. These topics are often directly related to the continuing evolution of the human mind and come mainly via technological, scientific and educational developments that take generations to filter through and become dominant in society. The industrial and agricultural revolutions changed the fundamental base of global economics forever: the agricultural revolution that was sparked by technological advances in farming and enabled migration to cities. The industrial revolution enabled humans to create better lives for increasing populations via technology and growth economic principles.
A much larger but slower trend that has an effect on the ideals and morals of society is religion. Religion is responsible for the true borders of today's world and has been a main driver in the shaping of history via the rise and fall of empires, wars, and genocides (namely the Holocaust and Armenian Genocides) among others. The free world that we know today was built by Free Mason rebels whose ideals differed from those of their government – and they went on to build the foundation of one of the greatest empires in history. This is perhaps the greatest example of how religion and ideals can alter the landscape of the world.
Two hundred and thirty three years after the beginning of the free world as we know it began, we are starting to see a sizable shift in the religious demographics of America.
You can see in the graph of US religious trends (see slideshow) depicting the religious sect, if any, that a sample of US citizens identify with. There are limited surveys out there that cover this statistic; however all give the same picture. This matter has demanded more attention as of late, namely from the cover of Newsweek magazine in April in response to the most recent update to the ARIS survey (American Religious Identification Survey). The main takeaway being that the Christian base of America - mainly those whom historically identify with Protestantism - is declining. The non-believers of America are now becoming a powerful fundamental belief (or non-belief) group of America which is a first for our country - and the trend is strong. This was recently re-enforced by another news release as of late by the Religion News Service. USA today even ran a story with some graphics.
This trend will be hard to break and will likely increase due to population growth. The study found that while 15% of Americans do not identify with religion, 22% of Americans aged 18-29 identify as non believers. When this generation has families that raise their children with no religious fundamentals, their grandchildren will not be as probable to have religious beliefs to the extent that the average American citizen did during the 19th century, etc. The generation trickle down will enforce the trend.
The obvious alternative to having a theistic stance in life is being atheistic. The beliefs of atheists are stereotypically those having Darwinian views (or variation of Darwinian views). Evolution to so called non-believers replaces the chapter of Genesis in the Bible. This is pronounced by the study's findings that 61% of non religious Americans identify with evolution as a creation stance opposed to the general American public's evolutionary acceptance rate of 38%.
So why is this important for the well being of the environment and our economy? Evolution has been one of the harder concepts for Americans to grasp in relation to the rest of the world (see slideshow). Americans are the second to last major economic country in the world to "believe" in evolution. This is surprising as one would instinctively think that the more educated the nation, the more a population would be able to grasp the broad scientific concept of evolution. Rather it is the opposite - our roots are extremely fundamental in terms of the literal translation of the Bible compared to the views of other Protestant countries that have a high evolution acceptance rating like Sweden. Citizens in these European nations have strong faiths, but also are able to see how the developments of science have helped human kind's understanding of the history of the earth and its living organisms. This has always been a hot topic in the US - evolution topics introduced biology and science classes are done with caution.
An understanding of biology and the process of evolution is instrumental in having respect for one's environmental surroundings. If one knows that his existence was a product of his surroundings and living organisms, he is much more likely to have respect and identify with nature and the ecological processes that enable life to exist on the planet. A Christian and growth economic base does not necessarily teach these similar stances. The chapter of Genesis declares man as the keeper and dominant species of all the earth. It is interpreted by the majority that since God created the earth and instructed man to use the earth's resources at his disposal (Genesis 1:28 God blessed them and said to them, "Be fruitful and increase in number; fill the earth and subdue it. Rule over the fish of the sea and the birds of the air and over every living creature that moves on the ground."). The fundamentalist view being that depletion of the quantity and quality of the earth's resources is not possible since God created earth and his interpreted instructions did not have environmental sustainability in mind. With the capitalist hub of the world being grown from Christianity, religion had a large part in promoting growth economics globally. These economic principles are intertwined with the then current interpretation of the Bible's view of natural resources.
Population dynamics played a huge role in the development of our current economic system as well. The pioneers of neoclassical growth economics (Smith, Keynes, etc.) did not account for the future exponential population growth that we currently have today and the strain it would put on the earth’s resources.
Quality of the land, water and air in particular are not chained into this now globally adhered to economic system. Yes, commodity prices include the supply/demand balance of the crucial energy and agricultural resources that are vital to our survival; however the abundant supply and price efficiency of their respective markets depend on increasing technologies that pump more quantity to feed the rising middle class (the goal of growth economics). This process continues to degrade freshwater sources, sink water tables, degrade land quality and pollute the air - all in the name of quantity. Immediate reactions to short term water supplies, degrading land sources, etc. are priced in short term, however the longer and broader picture is not necessarily priced into the markets.
Take agriculture for example. Corn and Soybean prices in the US depend on substantial rain, warmth and specific weather patterns in order to have sufficient supplies to feed the world. Risk premiums are built up during the growing season when there is a lack of rain, rumor of early frost, etc. but prices will eventually come down once general consensus is that there will be ample supplies of the commodity. The quality of the fundamental commodities to life (fresh water, land and air) is not priced in.
The fresh water problem can be solved via technology, however economically we will pay a price for it - at least in the short term. Desalinization technology is available and by the time we will look to rely on it, it should be able to be produced in the volume needed - but it is expensive - an easy cost that could have been avoided. Air quality issues are just starting to be addressed via carbon emissions and global warming but are still a ways off from having an impact. Land base quality just continues to be exploited via crude oil and other fossil fuel based chemicals that are used for fertilizer and technological improvements. In the process of adapting the earth to human wants and needs, thousands of species have been forced into extinction, (species extinction rates are hundreds of times greater than the historical averages before the 19th century) creating gaps in the earth’s ecological cycles that we rely on. Common sense tells us that when one piece of a puzzle is missing, the end result will look much different than intended.
With a declining religious base in the US and inversely correlating non-believing group, the religious fundamentals that do not necessarily promote evolutionary beliefs are receiving less political power within this democratic nation. While this trend is very slow moving and will take years to come to the surface, one cannot ignore the economic implications of this shift. After all, in a democratic nation politicians need to appeal to the masses - and for the first time in US history the third largest belief group in America (projected to be second in 15-20 years ) puts their faith in science.
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