Ida emerges over the northwestern Caribbean Sea; headed for the Gulf of Mexico

November 6, 7:15 PMJackson Weather ExaminerJohnny Kelly

Previous Next

Comment Print Email RSS Subscribe

Subscribe

Get alerts when there is a new article from the Jackson Weather Examiner. Read Examiner.com's terms of use.

Email Address   Include other special offers from Examiner.com Terms of Use

Infrared satellite loop of Ida, Friday afternoon (NOAA)

---

Related Articles

• Ida becomes the 3rd hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season
• Tropical Storm Ida forms; 9th named storm of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season
• Tropical Depression 11 forms in the southwestern Caribbean
• Tropical Storm Ida (Public Statement)

The center of Ida emerged back out over the waters of the Caribbean Sea off the Honduran/Nicaraguan border, Friday afternoon.

Ida had weakened significantly over land after becoming the 3rd hurricane of the 2009 season, Thursday morning

A well-defined circulation remains with thunderstorm activity ongoing over the waters of the Caribbean north of the center. 

With a very warm northwestern Caribbean Sea with sea surface temperatures (SSTs)  above 80 degrees, strengthening is likely during the next 48 hours and Ida could once again become a tropical storm on Saturday.

By Sunday, Ida should be a moderate to strong tropical storm with winds from 60-70 mph.  There is a possibility Ida could re-attain hurricane status, but that potential is fairly low, due to moderately strong wind shear aloft  which should keep Ida from intensifying explosively.

Once Ida moves north past the Yucatan into the Gulf of Mexico as projected by the National Hurricane Center, it will encounter greater wind shear and cooler waters.

As a result, weakening is likely as Ida tracks north and northeast into the Gulf of Mexico.

(Note: The ultimate track of this system is unknown at this time but a majority of the computer models indicate Ida will track into the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico)

Regardless of the track, everyone living along the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Coasts should stay updated on the latest weather information concerning Tropical Depression Ida as it becomes available.

National Hurricane Center Discussion:

NOW THAT IDA IS OFFSHORE OVER VERY WARM WATERS, THE SYSTEM HAS A CHANCE TO RE-INTENSIFY.  

]THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA, WHERE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATE BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  

SHEAR IS LIKELY TO GET RATHER STRONG BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO, WITH COOLER WATERS PRESENT...SO WEAKENING WILL BE SHOWN AT THAT TIME.  

AFTER IDA ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO, IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  

THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY COMPLEX IN THE LONG RANGE WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN HOW IDA WILL INTERACT WITH THAT TROUGH.

MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CYCLONE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, THEN TURNING EASTWARD OR EVEN SOUTH OF EAST.  

A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THAT IDA WILL LIKELY BE TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THAT TIME AND THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE QUITE VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TRANSITION.

                           (NHC-5 day track)

                            (Weather Underground-forecast model tracks) 

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are much cooler across the northern Gulf of Mexico with much warm waters around 27 degrees Celsius and or 80 degrees Fahrenheit and higher in the southern Gulf of Mexico.

(Note: 27 degree Celsius  and or 80 degrees Fahrenheit and higher water temperatures are necessary for most tropical systems to either strengthen and or maintain their intensities)