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Ida poised to intensify in Caribbean
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Ida's Forecast Track
Tropical Depression Ida has emerged from the Honduran coast intact and is in a position to intensify once again. Satellite imagery shows a system that appears to be getting better organized. Wind shear, which tends to inhibit development, is moderate in the area but would still allow for development. Sea surface temperatures and heat content are still quite high in the Caribbean waters around the vicinity of Ida, another factor that would favor intensification, at least in the short term.
As Ida moves into the Gulf of Mexico, wind shear is forecast to be much higher and available energy from the water is a bit lower, which could halt the strengthening process. Next week, the cooler waters of the Gulf in addition to an approaching frontal system may transform Ida into an extratropical cyclone, but in either case the storm could have an impact on Florida's weather. The intensity and track of the system whether tropical or not will determine the impact Ida makes. The National Hurricane Center's official forecast track takes Ida generally northward into the Gulf of Mexico then making a hard right turn with a more easterly or even southeasterly movement at some point. Where or when it makes this turn is a very uncertain part of the forecast track with the level of uncertainty evident in the large cone five days out. All of South Florida is under the forecast cone at this time as well as most of Florida and part of coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. The best advice is still to keep an eye on the situation through the weekend.
Check out the latest info on Ida from the National Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
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